Will the Stock Market Crash? History Gives a 95% Reason to Stay Calm
Despite elevated concerns about a US stock market crash, historical data shows the S&P 500 has risen in approximately 95% of 12-month windows following midterm elections, providing a statistical argument for investor patience.
Key points
- S&P 500 positive in 95% of 12-month windows post midterm elections
- Yellow flags are real but history favours staying invested over timing exits
- Time horizon and concentration risk determine whether base-rate statistics apply
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Read the full analysis on market.news
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